Projected future groundwater balance for California Central Coast under different scenarios of land-use and climate change

Principal Investigator(s):  View help for Principal Investigator(s) U.S. Geological Survey (USGS); Tamara Wilson, Paul C Selmants

Version:  View help for Version V1

Name File Type Size Last Modified
LUCAS-CGW_ModelOutput.zip application/zip 21.2 MB 12/09/2025 01:42:AM
LUCAS_Water.xml application/xml 26.4 KB 11/25/2025 02:37:AM
Projected future groundwater balance for California Central Coast under different scenarios of land-use and climate change.png image/png 540.1 KB 11/25/2025 02:37:AM

Project Citation: 

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and Tamara Wilson, Paul C Selmants. Projected future groundwater balance for California Central Coast under different scenarios of land-use and climate change. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2025-12-09. https://doi.org/10.3886/E241082V1

Project Description

Project Title:  View help for Project Title Projected future groundwater balance for California Central Coast under different scenarios of land-use and climate change
Summary:  View help for Summary Tabular data output from a series of groundwater modeling simulations for five counties along the Central Coast of California, USA. We used a spatially explicit state-and-transition simulation model with stocks and flows that integrates climate, land-use change, human water use, and groundwater gain-loss to examine the impact of future climate and land use change on groundwater balance and water demand at 270-m resolution from 2010 to 2060. The model incorporated downscaled groundwater recharge projections based on a Warm/Wet and a Hot/Dry climate future using output from the Basin Characterization Model, a spatially explicit hydrological process-based model. Two urbanization projections from a parcel-based, regional urban growth model representing 1) recent historical and 2) state-mandated housing growth projections were used as alternative spatial targets for future urban growth. Agricultural projections were based on recent historical trends from remote sensing data. Annual projected changes in groundwater balance were calculated as the difference between land-use related water demand, based on historical estimates, and climate-driven recharge plus agriculture return flows to groundwater from excess irrigation. For each combination of the two climate and two land-use change scenarios, we ran 50 Monte Carlo realizations of the model. Results presented here have been aggregated from the individual cell level and summarized by county.
Original Distribution URL:  View help for Original Distribution URL https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/64cd3783d34ef477cf3a6e78

Scope of Project

Subject Terms:  View help for Subject Terms Land use change; Simulation model; Water resources
Geographic Coverage:  View help for Geographic Coverage California Central Coast
Time Period(s):  View help for Time Period(s) 2010 – 2060
Collection Notes:  View help for Collection Notes Downloaded 2025-11-25


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V1 [2025-12-09]

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