Global temperate drylands climate change vulnerability

Principal Investigator(s):  View help for Principal Investigator(s) U S Geological Survey; John Bradford, Southwest Biological Science Center; Khishigbayar Jamiyansharav; Daniel R Schlaepfer

Version:  View help for Version V1

Name File Type Size Last Modified
Global temperate drylands climate change vulnerability(1).xml application/xml 25.3 KB 11/13/2025 08:49:AM
Global temperate drylands climate change vulnerability.csv text/csv 17.7 MB 11/13/2025 08:28:AM

Project Citation: 

U S Geological Survey, Bradford, John, Jamiyansharav, Khishigbayar , and Schlaepfer, Daniel R. Global temperate drylands climate change vulnerability. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2025-11-13. https://doi.org/10.3886/E240258V1

Project Description

Project Title:  View help for Project Title Global temperate drylands climate change vulnerability
Summary:  View help for Summary Drylands cover 40% of the global terrestrial surface and provide important ecosystem services. While drylands as a whole are expected to increase in distribution and aridity in coming decades, temperature and precipitation forecasts vary by latitude and geographic region suggesting different trajectories for tropical, subtropical, and temperate drylands. Uncertainty in the future of tropical and subtropical drylands is well constrained, whereas soil moisture and ecological droughts, which drive vegetation productivity and composition, remain poorly understood in temperate drylands. Here we show that, over the 21st century, temperate drylands may contract by a third, primarily converting to subtropical drylands, and that deep soil layers will be increasingly dry during the growing season. These changes imply major shifts in vegetation and ecosystem service delivery. Our results illustrate the importance of appropriate drought measures and, as the first global study to focus on temperate drylands, highlight a distinct fate for these highly-populated areas. The data are outputs from the SOILWAT ecohydrological model, which was applied in a grid over 6 temperate drylands across the globe (South America, Southern Africa, Eastern Asia, Western and Central Asia, Western Mediterranean basin, and North America. Simulations were conducted for two time periods: 1980-2010 and 2069-2099.
Original Distribution URL:  View help for Original Distribution URL https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/5834656ae4b0070c0abfb2fa

Scope of Project

Subject Terms:  View help for Subject Terms climate change; drylands; hydrology; SOILWAT ecohydrological model; ecohydrology
Geographic Coverage:  View help for Geographic Coverage South America, Western Mediterranean Basin, Southern Africa, Western Asia, Eastern Asia, Central Asia, North America
Time Period(s):  View help for Time Period(s) 1/1/1980 – 12/31/2099
Data Type(s):  View help for Data Type(s) geographic information system (GIS) data
Collection Notes:  View help for Collection Notes Date downloaded 2025-11-13


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V1 [2025-11-13]

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