FHWA Aggregated National Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Forecasting – 30 Years into the Future

Name: FHWA Aggregated National Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Forecasting – 30 Years into the Future
Published: 2025-11-07
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0

Principal Investigator(s): View help for Principal Investigator(s) DOT Federal Highway Administration

Version: View help for Version V2

Name	File Type	Size	Last Modified
vmt			11/07/2025 10:50:PM

Project Citation:

DOT Federal Highway Administration. FHWA Aggregated National Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Forecasting – 30 Years into the Future. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2025-11-07. https://doi.org/10.3886/E239800V2

Project Description

Project Title: FHWA Aggregated National Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Forecasting – 30 Years into the Future

Summary: The Federal Highway Administration Spring 2025 long-term forecasts of nationwide VMT are based on long-term economic and demographic outlooks produced by the economic forecasting firm S&P Global Market Intelligence. FHWA’s national VMT forecasts are produced using statistical models that incorporate a range of factors affecting historical growth in motor vehicle use; these models are then used to develop VMT forecasts for each vehicle class that begin in 2024 and extend through 2053.1 The following two sections highlight the S&P Global baseline forecasts of key economic and demographic factors expected to influence future growth in passenger and freight travel, and discuss their effects on the resulting VMT forecasts. Following this is a brief discussion of the alternative forecasts of U.S. economic performance provided by S&P Global and their potential implications for future VMT growth.

Original Distribution URL: https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/tables/vmt/vmt_forecast_sum.cfm

Scope of Project

Subject Terms: fhwa; states (USA); traffic monitoring; traffic management

Geographic Coverage: USA (All States)

Time Period(s): 1/1/2023 – 12/31/2053 (30 year forecast)

Universe: Current and future vehicles of all US states.

Data Type(s): aggregate data; observational data

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Published Versions

V2 [2025-11-07]

V1 [2025-11-07]

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