Winter climate change and coastal wetland foundation species in the southeastern United States

Principal Investigator(s):  View help for Principal Investigator(s) U.S. Geological Survey (USGS); Thomas W Doyle, Ryan Day, Nicholas M Enwright, Michael J Osland

Version:  View help for Version V1

Name File Type Size Last Modified
Winter climate change and coastal wetland foundation species in the southeastern United States 0

Project Citation: 

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and Thomas W Doyle, Ryan Day, Nicholas M Enwright, Michael J Osland. Winter climate change and coastal wetland foundation species in the southeastern United States. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2025-12-16. https://doi.org/10.3886/E241284V1

Project Description

Project Title:  View help for Project Title Winter climate change and coastal wetland foundation species in the southeastern United States
Summary:  View help for Summary In this study, we investigated the potential effect of winter climate change upon salt marsh and mangrove forest foundation species in the southeastern United States. Our research addresses the following three questions: (1) What is the relationship between winter climate and the presence and abundance of mangrove forests relative to salt marshes; (2) How vulnerable are salt marshes to winter climate change-induced mangrove forest range expansion; and (3) What is the potential future distribution and relative abundance of mangrove forests under alternative winter climate change scenarios? We developed simple winter climate-based models to predict mangrove forest distribution and relative abundance using observed winter temperature data (1970–2000) and mangrove forest and salt marsh habitat data. Our results identify winter climate thresholds for salt marsh–mangrove forest interactions and highlight coastal areas in the southeastern United States (e.g., Texas, Louisiana, and parts of Florida) where relatively small changes in the intensity and frequency of extreme winter events could cause relatively dramatic landscape-scale ecosystem structural and functional change in the form of poleward mangrove forest migration and salt marsh displacement. The ecological implications of these marsh-to-mangrove forest conversions are poorly understood, but would likely include changes for associated fish and wildlife populations and for the supply of some ecosystem goods and services.
Original Distribution URL:  View help for Original Distribution URL https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/5b16da85e4b092d9651fcae4

Scope of Project

Subject Terms:  View help for Subject Terms biogeography; land use and land cover; vegetation; wetland ecosystems
Geographic Coverage:  View help for Geographic Coverage Gulf of Mexico
Collection Notes:  View help for Collection Notes Downloaded 2025-11-25.


Related Publications

Download this file

Published Versions

V1 [2025-12-16]

Export Metadata

Dublin Core

DDI 2.5

Report a Problem

Found a serious problem with the data, such as disclosure risk or copyrighted content? Let us know.

This material is distributed exactly as received from the data depositor. ICPSR has not reviewed, checked, or processed this material. For additional information about the study, please contact the investigator(s) directly. If you have questions about the accessibility of materials distributed by ICPSR or require further assistance, please visit ICPSR's Accessibility Center.