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Groundswell Africa Spatial Population and Migration Projections 0

Project Citation: 

NASA. Groundswell Africa Spatial Population and Migration Projections. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2025-11-30. https://doi.org/10.3886/E240783V1

Project Description

Project Title:  View help for Project Title Groundswell Africa Spatial Population and Migration Projections
Summary:  View help for Summary
From original website

The Groundswell Africa Spatial Population and Migration Projections at One-Eighth Degree According to SSPs and RCPs, 2010-2050 data set provides a baseline population distribution for 2010 and projections from 2020 to 2050, in five-year increments, of population distribution and internal climate-related and other migration for West Africa and the Lake Victoria Basin. The projections are produced using the NCAR-CIDR Spatial Population Downscaling Model developed by the CUNY Institute for Demographic Research (CIDR) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The model incorporates assumptions based on future development scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways or SSPs) and emissions trajectories (Representative Concentration Pathways or RCPs). The SSPs include SSP2, representing a middle-of-the road future, and SSP4, representing an unequal development future. Climate models using low and high emissions scenarios, RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, then drive climate impact models on water availability, crop productivity, and pasturelands (where cropping does not occur), as well as flood impacts, from the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP). Sea-level rise impacts in the coastal zone are estimated to be 1 meter under RCP2.6 and 2 meters under RCP8.5, to account for potential storm surge or coastal flooding. Four scenarios are generated, a pessimistic reference scenario combining SSP4 and RCP8.5, a more climate-friendly scenario combining SSP4 and RCP2.6, a more inclusive development scenario combining SSP2 and RCP8.5, and an optimistic scenario combining SSP2 and RCP2.6. Each scenario provides an ensemble average of four model runs combining different climate impact models as well as confidence intervals to better capture uncertainties. The modeling work was funded and developed jointly with The World Bank.

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Metadata are included in various formats. 
Original Distribution URL:  View help for Original Distribution URL https://cmr.earthdata.nasa.gov/search/concepts/C3540928053-ESDIS.html

Scope of Project

Subject Terms:  View help for Subject Terms population distribution; migration
Geographic Coverage:  View help for Geographic Coverage West Africa and the Lake Victoria Basin
Data Type(s):  View help for Data Type(s) geographic information system (GIS) data; other


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