Climate.gov Data Snapshots: Temperature - Monthly Outlook

Principal Investigator(s): View help for Principal Investigator(s) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Name	File Type	Size	Last Modified
data			06/23/2025 07:27:PM
Climate_gov_ Data Snapshots.pdf	application/pdf	6 MB	06/17/2025 06:49:PM
Temperature - Monthly Outlook _ NOAA Climate.gov.pdf	application/pdf	1.4 MB	06/17/2025 06:49:PM

Project Citation:

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Climate.gov Data Snapshots: Temperature - Monthly Outlook. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2025-06-23. https://doi.org/10.3886/E233266V2

Project Description

Project Title: Climate.gov Data Snapshots: Temperature - Monthly Outlook

Summary:

Q: What are the chances for various temperature conditions next month?

A: Shaded areas show where average temperature has an increased chance of being warmer or cooler than usual. The darker the shading, the greater the chance for the indicated condition. White areas have equal chances for average temperatures that are below, near, or above the long-term average for the month.

Q: What data do experts use to develop these forecasts?

A: Climate scientists base future climate outlooks on current patterns in the ocean and atmosphere. They examine projections from climate and weather models and consider recent trends. They also check historical records to see what temperature conditions resulted from similar patterns in the past.

Q: What do the colors mean?

A: Colors on the map show experts’ level of confidence in their forecasts for above- or below-average temperatures. Each location on the map has some chance to experience average temperatures that rank in the bottom, middle, or top of records from the previous three decades. White areas have equal chances for all three conditions. Colors show where the odds for one of the conditions are higher than for the other two.

A common mistake is to interpret these maps as predicted temperatures. However, dark orange or red areas are not predicted to be warmer than light orange areas. The darker orange areas simply have a higher likelihood for above-average temperatures than the lighter orange areas do. Similarly, dark blue areas are not predicted to be cooler than light blue areas. Keep in mind that outlooks show the most likely condition for each region, not the only possible outcome. You can visit the Data Snapshots interface to view previous temperature outlooks and compare them to monthly temperature observations.

Q: Why do these data matter?

A: Energy companies want to know how much energy people will need in the next month. Temperature outlooks can inform them when they should prepare to meet high demand for energy. Outlooks can also help them choose the best time to schedule maintenance procedures. Forestry managers also check temperature outlooks. When they see increased chances for warmer-than-usual weather, they prepare for more wildfires. Managers in agricultural industries also want to know if temperatures are likely to be warmer or cooler than usual. This information can help them optimize food production.

Q: How did you produce these snapshots?

A: Data Snapshots are derivatives of existing data products: to meet the needs of a broad audience, we present the source data in a simplified visual style. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) produces the source images for monthly temperature outlooks. To produce our images, we run a set of scripts that access mapping layers from CPC, re-project them into desired projections at various sizes, and output them with a custom color bar.

Additional information

CPC issues monthly outlooks one-half month before the beginning of the month of interest. On the day before the new month begins, experts update the outlook for the upcoming month. Each monthly outlook in Data Snapshots shows the date the outlook was issued. Outlooks that include Alaska are available: while displaying an outlook of interest, click the Download button, select Full Resolution Assets, and then click OK

References

One-Month to Three-Month Climate Outlooks.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/ Current Outlook Discussion
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus07.html

Source: https://www.climate.gov/maps-data/data-snapshots/data-source/temperature-monthly-outlook

This upload includes two additional files:
* Temperature - Monthly Outlook _NOAA Climate.gov.pdf is a screenshot of the main Climate.gov site for these snapshots (https://www.climate.gov/maps-data/data-snapshots/data-source/temperature-monthly-outlook)
* Cimate_gov_ Data Snapshots.pdf is a screenshot of the data download page for the full-resolution files.

Original Distribution URL: https://www.climate.gov/data/Temperature--Monthly--Outlook--US/

Scope of Project

Subject Terms: climate; climate change; temperature; forecasting models

Geographic Coverage: United States

Time Period(s): 1/17/2013 – 5/31/2025 (Monthly images from 2013 to present)

Data Type(s): images: photographs, drawings, graphical representations

Collection Notes: Data is divided in to folders by image resolution -- full size (zip), small (png) and large (png). Occasionally there may be one image missing in a particular size but available in another size.

Data downloaded from climate.gov 6/15/2025 - 6/16/2025 (small, large, and full resolution) and 6/21/2025 (others).

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Published Versions

V2 [2025-06-23]

V1 [2025-06-21]

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