Climate.gov Data Snapshots: Projections - Average Mean Temperature, High Emissions
Principal Investigator(s): View help for Principal Investigator(s) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Version: View help for Version V2
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Project Citation:
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Climate.gov Data Snapshots: Projections - Average Mean Temperature, High Emissions. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2025-06-23. https://doi.org/10.3886/E233262V2
Project Description
Project Title:
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Climate.gov Data Snapshots: Projections - Average Mean Temperature, High Emissions
Summary:
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This upload includes two additional files:
* Projections - Average Mean Temperature, High Emissions _NOAA Climate.gov.pdf is a screenshot of the main Climate.gov site for these snapshots (https://www.climate.gov/maps-data/data-snapshots/data-source/projections-average-mean-temperature-hi...)
* Cimate_gov_ Data Snapshots.pdf is a screenshot of the data download page for the full-resolution files.
Q: What
average temperatures are projected for future decades if global
emissions of heat-trapping gases continue increasing through 2100?
A: Colors
show projected average daily temperature for each month from the 2020s
through the 2090s, based on a high-emissions future.
In this case, the high-emissions future represents a specific Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) called RCP 8.5. Learn more about RCPs »
Q: Where do these measurements come from?
A: Temperature
projections in these images represent output from 32 global climate
models that are all part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
Phase 5 (CMIP5).
Projections labeled as “High emissions” represent a potential future in
which global emissions continue increasing through the 21st
century. By 2100, the result of this pathway is climate forcing of 8.5
Watts per square meter at the top of the atmosphere. Based on the energy
imbalance along this pathway, global climate models calculate
temperature across Earth’s surface for future periods. The RCP 8.5
scenario represents a future in which no climate policies are enacted.
To produce regionally relevant projections, results from the global
models were statistically downscaled using a method called Localized
Constructed Analogs (LOCA).
This technique uses observed local-scale weather and climate
information to increase the spatial resolution of global-scale
projections, and corrects for bias in the model simulations.
Images of long-term averages from 1981 to 2010 (PRISM normals)
show recent conditions; these maps provide a baseline for comparison
with future projections. To produce the normals data, the PRISM group at
Oregon State University gathered temperature and precipitation records
from a range of federal, state, and international weather station
networks, and then mapped them to a grid. To fill map areas between
observation stations, the group used a digital elevation model as a
predictor grid, and refined the model to account for local effects of
mountains, distance from coasts, and other factors that affect climate
in complex terrains.
Q: What do the colors mean?
A: Shades
of blue show where average temperature for the month was, or is
projected to be, below 60°F during the period indicated. The darker the
shade of blue, the lower the temperature. Areas shown in shades of
orange and red had, or are projected to have, average temperatures over
60°F. The darker the shade of orange or red, the higher the temperature.
White or very light colors show where the average temperature was, or
is projected to be, near 60°F.
Q: Why do these data matter?
A: In
order to meet future needs for energy, food, and public health,
planners and other decision makers need to understand how temperatures
are projected to change over the coming decades. As the climate system
continues responding to the heat-trapping gases we have added to the
atmosphere, temperatures will change at different rates in different
regions. These images can help people get a sense of how much warming
their region will experience each decade so they can plan ahead for new
conditions.
These data also provide people with a way to compare conditions
projected for stabilized emissions with conditions projected for high
emissions. Comparing the two potential futures may encourage people to
take actions to reduce emissions.
Q: How did you produce these snapshots?
A: We
used a suite of Python scripts to process and visualize LOCA (Localized
Constructed Analogs) data. The processing scripts averaged the daily
values for each month in a given decade from all 32 global climate
models that comprise the LOCA dataset. We then calculated the median of
all models in each month of the decade. The visualization scripts
produced maps of the results within the contiguous United States.
For further information, see the README file or access the scripts on GitHub ».
Additional information
Observed
temperatures for the last three decades (1981-2010) fall mostly within
the range from 0-100°F; this is the temperature range we used to produce
sets of 30-yr average temperature maps for Data Snapshots. The range
was selected to reveal patterns of recent temperature across the maps.
In order to generate a consistent set of maps that represent recent
AND future temperatures, we needed to show temperatures from 10-110°F.
Therefore, if you compare Data Snapshots’ PRISM normals images with our
30-year average images side-by-side, you will see slightly different
colors representing the same data values. Always interpret color-coded
images by checking the numerical values shown on their color bars.
References
Pierce, D. W., D. R. Cayan, and B. L. Thrasher, 2014: Statistical Downscaling Using Localized Constructed Analogs (LOCA). Journal of Hydrometeorology, volume 15, page 2558-2585.
* Projections - Average Mean Temperature, High Emissions _NOAA Climate.gov.pdf is a screenshot of the main Climate.gov site for these snapshots (https://www.climate.gov/maps-data/data-snapshots/data-source/projections-average-mean-temperature-hi...)
* Cimate_gov_ Data Snapshots.pdf is a screenshot of the data download page for the full-resolution files.
Original Distribution URL:
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https://www.climate.gov/data/Projections--Monthly--Average-Mean-Temp-high-emissions--CONUS/
Scope of Project
Subject Terms:
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forecast;
forecasting models;
climate;
climate change;
temperature
Geographic Coverage:
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United States of America
Data Type(s):
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images: photographs, drawings, graphical representations
Collection Notes:
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Data is divided in to folders by image resolution -- full size (zip), broadcast (png), small (png), and large (png). Occasionally there may be one image missing in a particular size but available in another size.
Data downloaded from climate.gov 6/15/2025-6/16/2025 (small, large, and full resolution) and 6/21/2025 (broadcast).
Data downloaded from climate.gov 6/15/2025-6/16/2025 (small, large, and full resolution) and 6/21/2025 (broadcast).
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