Climate.gov Data Snapshots: Historic Probability of Large Wildfire

Principal Investigator(s): View help for Principal Investigator(s) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Name	File Type	Size	Last Modified
data			06/24/2025 09:11:PM
Climate_gov_ Data Snapshots.pdf	application/pdf	10.9 MB	06/17/2025 06:03:PM
Historic Probability of Large Wildfire _ NOAA Climate.gov.pdf	application/pdf	1.1 MB	06/17/2025 06:03:PM

Project Citation:

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Climate.gov Data Snapshots: Historic Probability of Large Wildfire. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2025-06-24. https://doi.org/10.3886/E233241V2

Project Description

Project Title: Climate.gov Data Snapshots: Historic Probability of Large Wildfire

Summary:

Q: Where is the chance for wildfires enhanced at this time of year?

A: Shading on each map reflects how often fires with an area of 100 acres or larger were reported within 25 miles during a 24-year base period. The darker the shading, the higher the number of fires reported close in time to the displayed date.

Q: How were these maps produced?

A: Using daily fire records from the beginning of 1992 through the end of 2015, meteorologists who specialize in predicting fire weather plotted all fires of 100 acres or larger on a map. Grid lines on the map divide the entire area into rectangles—called grid cells—approximately 50 miles on a side. For every day of the year, scientists counted the number of years each grid cell contained at least one qualifying fire, and then divided by the total number of years. To reveal the long-term pattern of fires, scientists applied mathematical filters to smooth the raw counts, both across the land (spatially) and through the year (temporally). Fire locations and sizes were originally obtained from the U.S Forest Service Fire Program Analysis Fire-Occurrence Database.

Q: What do the colors mean?

A: Shaded areas show the historical probability of a wildfire that covers 100 acres or more occurring within 25 miles.

Q: Why do these data matter?

A: Knowing when and where large wildfires occur through the year can promote preparedness. Residents who are alert to the possibility of wildfires are better able to respond in ways that can keep them safe. These maps can also help firefighting agencies plan for when and where their services and equipment may be needed.

Q: How did you produce these snapshots?

A: Data Snapshots are derivatives of existing data products: to meet the needs of a broad audience, we present the source data in a simplified visual style. NOAA's National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center produced the original Probability of a Wildfire ≥ 100 acres files. To produce our images, we obtained the map data, and ran a set of scripts to display the mapped areas on our base maps with a custom color bar. See box at right for a link to the original data source.

References

Short, Karen C. 2017. Spatial wildfire occurrence data for the United States, 1992-2015 [FPA_FOD_20170508]. 4th Edition. Fort Collins, CO: Forest Service Research Data Archive. https://doi.org/10.2737/RDS-2013-0009.4

Source: https://www.climate.gov/maps-data/data-snapshots/data-source/historic-probability-large-wildfire

This upload includes two additional files:
* Historic Probability of Large Wildfire _NOAA Climate.gov.pdf is a screenshot of the main Climate.gov site for these snapshots (https://www.climate.gov/maps-data/data-snapshots/data-source/historic-probability-large-wildfire)
* Cimate_gov_ Data Snapshots.pdf is a screenshot of the data download page for the full-resolution files.

Original Distribution URL: https://www.climate.gov/data/SevereWeather--Daily--Historic-Probability-of-Large-Wildfire--CONUS/

Scope of Project

Subject Terms: climate; climate change; wildfire

Geographic Coverage: United States

Time Period(s): 1992 – 2015

Data Type(s): images: photographs, drawings, graphical representations

Collection Notes: One image for each day of the year.

Data is divided in to folders by image resolution -- full size (zip), broadcast (png), small (png) and large (png). Occasionally there may be one image missing in a particular size but available in another size.

Data downloaded from climate.gov 6/15/2025 - 6/16/2025 (small, large, and full resolution) and 6/21/2025 (others).

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Published Versions

V2 [2025-06-24]

V1 [2025-06-19]

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