Spatial Models of Wild Bird Risk Factors for Highly Pathogenic A(H5N1) Avian Influenza Virus Transmission

Principal Investigator(s):  View help for Principal Investigator(s) United States Department of the Interior. United States Geological Survey; Diann J Prosser; Laura L. Hungerford; R. Michael Erwin; Mary Ann Ottinger; John Takekawa; Scott H. Newman; Xiangming Xiao; Erle C. Ellis

Version:  View help for Version V1

Name File Type Size Last Modified
AbundanceModels_BreedingSeason.zip application/zip 7 MB 05/29/2025 11:40:AM
AbundanceModels_WinteringSeason.zip application/zip 11.3 MB 05/29/2025 11:26:AM
CoefficientOfVariationLayers_Breeding.zip application/zip 6.8 MB 05/29/2025 11:26:AM
CoefficientOfVariationLayers_Wintering.zip application/zip 11.5 MB 05/29/2025 11:26:AM
PrevalenceModels_Breeding.zip application/zip 6.8 MB 05/29/2025 11:28:AM
PrevalenceModels_Wintering.zip application/zip 11.3 MB 05/29/2025 11:26:AM
data-catalog-entry_USGS-5fd10f1dd34e30b91239b703.html text/html 482.1 KB 05/29/2025 11:29:AM
data-catalog-entry_USGS-5fd10f1dd34e30b91239b703.pdf application/pdf 378.9 KB 04/03/2025 04:17:PM
data_container_USGS-5fd10f1dd34e30b91239b703.html text/html 54.3 KB 05/29/2025 11:26:AM
data_container_USGS-5fd10f1dd34e30b91239b703.pdf application/pdf 499.3 KB 04/03/2025 05:28:PM

Project Citation: 

United States Department of the Interior. United States Geological Survey, Prosser, Diann J, Hungerford, Laura L., Erwin, R. Michael, Ottinger, Mary Ann, Takekawa, John, … Ellis, Erle C. Spatial Models of Wild Bird Risk Factors for Highly Pathogenic A(H5N1) Avian Influenza Virus Transmission. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2025-05-29. https://doi.org/10.3886/E231326V1

Project Description

Project Title:  View help for Project Title Spatial Models of Wild Bird Risk Factors for Highly Pathogenic A(H5N1) Avian Influenza Virus Transmission
Summary:  View help for Summary
Wild waterfowl (family Anatidae) are reported as secondary transmitters of HPAIV and primary reservoirs for low-pathogenic avian influenza viruses, yet spatial inputs for disease risk modeling for this group have been lacking. Using geographic information software and Monte Carlo simulations, we developed geospatial indices of waterfowl abundance at 1 km resolutions for the breeding and wintering seasons for China, the epicenter of H5N1. Two types of spatial layers were developed: cumulative waterfowl abundance (WAB), a measure of predicted abundance by species, and cumulative abundance weighted by H5N1 prevalence (WPR), whereby abundance for each species was adjusted based on species specific prevalence values. Spatial patterns of the model output differed between seasons, with higher WAB and WPR in the northern and western regions of China for the breeding season and in the southeast for the wintering season. Uncertainty measures indicated highest error in southeastern China for both WAB and WPR.
Original Distribution URL:  View help for Original Distribution URL https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/5fd10f1dd34e30b91239b703

Scope of Project

Subject Terms:  View help for Subject Terms wildlife disease; Avian Influenza


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V1 [2025-05-29]

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